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Stuck Below Midpoint

I have been rating Biden’s chance of winning on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being high. Before the pandemic, I was at a 2. By then, Trump had delivered on many of his campaign promises: cutting back corporate taxes, drastically slowing the immigrant inflow (albeit legal!), stacking the judiciary with conservatives, unraveling environmental controls, waging trade wars with various countries, taking credit for a healthy stock market, upending centuries-old norms to drain the swamp, and inching this country closer to a vision based on supremacy.

These achievements please his base enormously.

Fast forward to today. Even if civil unrest does not sit well with the middle-of-the-road independents who voted for him, his brand of fiscal conservatism is aligned with what these voters want. Many of them likely view racism and culture war as collateral damage, justifiable and forgivable in favor of MAGA.

The Republicans may squirm a bit here and there, but in the end they will stick by their man in November. What reasons do independents who voted for Trump have to switch?

In early March - extremely low. Since the pandemic, joblessness, and civil unrest, I have inched to 4.5.

Trump has been the antithesis of a profile in courage in the last few months. Biden should grab this like a divine gift. On this factor (which may not sustain till November), I’ll give him a 7. On the question of will he? - I have to rate him low, still a 2. Weighting them equally, and not including any other factors, puts me at a 4.5. A simple model for my one-cell brain.

I frequently scour the net on Biden's presence in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other swing states. Is he wearing his N95 mask and talking to independents while keeping six feet distance? Is he bombarding them on social media and their cell phones with statistics, fiery words, meaningful economy-focussed messages and ads to prove he is their man?

I know, the pandemic!

But that cannot stop him. I have no evidence he is raising his ground game. Maybe his team is, but that’s not the same thing. HRC lacked a direct connection with voters in these states, contributing to her electoral college loss.

For a win, the Blacks, Hispanics, and immigrants are essential but we will not push Biden across the finish line on our own. For that he needs the white, suburban, independents to swing a hard left. He needs men to swing left. He needs women to swing left. He needs to appeal to the rich and poor and young and old. The independents won't turn to Biden automagically, he has to fight hard for them.

If he is waiting for the win to land on his lap based on polls, we’ve seen this movie before and it didn't end well. He needs to aim for a complete rout.

No voter left behind and carpe diem!! When I see that, I'll get to 10.

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